Brexit…the first 12 months and the way forward…?
Posted on Friday, June 30, 2017 by Venn Group — No comments
So, we’ve survived the first 12 months of Brexit – the sky hasn’t fallen in, cats aren’t sleeping with dogs and sterling hasn’t imploded (completely).
Wasn’t this always going to be the case? The public perception of a cataclysmic instantaneous impact was never the view of economists or those in the business world but what it has produced is uncertainty. The initial London Chamber of Commerce Brexit (LCCI) report found that businesses were taking a ‘pragmatic and level-headed approach’, and their recently published update has demonstrated, on the whole, a sentiment of cautious optimism.
The current political upheaval has done little to help the situation. Putting political allegiances to one side, the concept of having a ‘strong and stable ‘ regime in order to provide a more solid negotiating position is sound, particularly given that as time progresses the EU is likely to become less unified than it currently is.
At the LCCI Brexit meeting on June 27th the panel and delegates in attendance were in broad agreement on the following points:
the UK should make trade as frictionless as possible – in terms of both pay and non-pay tariffs
it seems unlikely that the time period of 2 years from the triggering of Article 50 in March 2017 can be adhered to given the progress so far and the complexity involved
In essence, this means the only certainty the business world can be assured of – is on going uncertainty. This means we are more than likely going to be heading into a period of transition with an interim agreement in place beyond the 2 year deadline, which therefore means businesses can plan do little medium or long term planning. Yes, we can make our companies more risk averse, diversify our income streams and take steps to make ourselves more able to absorb economic volatility.
However, with so many variables I suspect we’ll end up doing what the City of London and the UK does best, and just get on with it!
Simon Hardy, Venn Group